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Democrats’ chances of beating the GOP to hold the Senate two weeks before halftime

Election forecasters say Democrats and Republicans are in a close race for control of the Senate ahead of the midterms. However, some analysts believe the Democrats have an advantage and are likely to retain control of the upper chamber after this year’s election.

FiveThirtyEight predicts Democrats have a 55 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate, while the GOP has a 45 percent chance. In the meantime, The economist said Democrats are winning control of the Senate in 80 out of 100 simulations of November’s election, while Politico predicts the race for control of the Senate will remain a “race.”

The outlet notes that the most uncertain Senate races include those in New Hampshire, Colorado and Arizona, which are “slim” Democratic, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, which are “slim” Republican, and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, which are are marked as “raises”.

Democrats' odds of beating GOP in midterms
Above, a voter casts her absentee ballot on the first day of Saturday’s in-person early voting at the Desert Vista Community Center in Las Vegas. Election forecasters say Democrats and Republicans are in a tight battle for control of the Senate ahead of the midterms.
David Becker

Georgia Senate Race

Recent polls in the Georgia Senate race have revealed a slight advantage for incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. An InsiderAdvantage poll released last week showed Warnock leading GOP nominee Herschel Walker 46 percent to 43 percent. The poll contacted 550 likely voters and has an error rate of 4.2 percent. However, the most recent poll in the race by Landmark Communications found Walker and Warnock tied at 46 percent each, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Ohio Senate Race

In Ohio, Republican Senate nominee JD Vance appears to have an advantage over Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan, who is also vying for the seat. According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll average for the race, Vance has support from 45.8 percent of voters, while Ryan has 44.5 percent. A recent poll by Suffolk University found Vance leading Ryan at 47 to 45 percent. The poll contacted 500 likely voters and has an error rate of 4.4 percent.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

Democratic Pennsylvania Deputy Governor John Fetterman appears to be leading Republican Senate nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz to be in the highly competitive race of this state. The FiveThirtyEight poll average shows that Fetterman has 46.6 percent of voters supporting it, while Oz has 44.4 percent. However, an InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll released last week found both candidates tied at 46 percent. This poll polled 550 likely voters and has an error rate of 4.2 percent.

Nevada Senate Race

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto and former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt are also in a close race. Laxalt is slightly ahead in the polls, leading Cortez Masto 46 to 45.6 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. An Oct. 20 CBS poll showed Laxalt leading Cortez-Masto by 49 percent to 48 percent. The poll had an error rate of 4.4 percent and polled 1,057 voters.

North Carolina Senate Race

In North Carolina, Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley voted behind GOP Congressman Ted Budd in her Senate race. The latest poll, released this month by the Trafalgar Group, found Budd leading Beasley at 48 to 44 percent. This survey did not disclose their margin of error. Meanwhile, another East Carolina University poll released this month put Budd at 50 percent and Beasley at 44 percent. The poll polled 902 likely voters and has an error rate of 3.8 percent.

Wisconsin Senate Race

Incumbent Wisconsin Republican Senator Ron Johnson faces a serious challenge from Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. According to FiveThirtyEight, Johnson is ahead of Barnes in the overall poll average for the race at 49.5 to 46.6 percent. An Oct. 12 Marquette Law School poll showed Johnson leading Barnes by 52 percent to 46 percent. The poll polled 801 registered voters in Wisconsin with an error rate of 4.3 percent. However, another poll of all registered law school voters found that Barnes and Johnson each got 47 percent.

Arizona Senate Race

In Arizona, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly maintains a lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters. A Trafalgar Group poll released last week showed Kelly up 1 point and leading Masters 47.4 to 46.4 percent. The survey contacted 1,078 respondents and has an error rate of 2.9 percent. Another poll by InsiderAdvantage and FOX 10, released in mid-October, found Kelly has a larger lead over his opponent at 46-42 percent. The poll contacted 550 voters and has an error rate of 4.2 percent.

news week has reached out to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-chances-beating-gop-hold-senate-two-weeks-midterm-1754115 Democrats’ chances of beating the GOP to hold the Senate two weeks before halftime

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